Thursday, July 31, 2008

Could Be A Big Day

The current squawk has a three-way deal happening between the Red Sox, Pirates, and Marlins, that basically has Manny going to Florida, Jason Bay going to Boston, Jeremy Hermida going to Pittsburgh, and a lot of cash and prospects moving all over the place to spackle in the cracks.

The prospects and spare parts of this deal will ultimately determine how it looks long-term for everyone involved, but I have a hard time believing that the Red Sox have a better shot to win the World Series this season with Jason Bay as opposed to Manny Ramirez. I know he's crazy and all, but he's been crazy for a long time and it had worked out just fine.

All that said, I have this feeling that, if it happens, we'll look back on this deal in a few years and remember it as the day the Pirates turned the corner more than anything else. No, I have no idea about what prospects may go their way here, but it strikes me that when the first team in a three-way deal is trying to unload a headache, and the second team in the three-way deal is trying to rent a player in order to go for broke, the third team in that deal stands a pretty good chance of benefiting from the emotional inefficiencies involved.

5 comments:

Jason said...

"Anyone but Manny, anywhere but Boston"

---Yanks fans everywhere

tadthebad said...

Craig,

The tension among the Red Sox is palpable. As you've reported, MBM and trade talks have happened before, but it certainly SEEMS that such distractions have finally impacted the players. It definitely has impacted Francona. Bay has been similar to Manny this season (although not quite as good) and with what I assume is better defense and a better attitude, I don't see Bay as a real downgrade. Granted, I'm not all that familiar with his work, but no one the Sox trade for will be the caliber of hitter that Manny is. Trading two months of Manny for a good player and a decent prospect(s) appeals to me.

However, chances are that Manny remains with the Sox beyond this afternoon.

Alex said...

Like I've always said, "Emotional inefficiencies are the engine of baseball."

abbreviatedman said...

Hey Craig,

Longtime reader, firsttime poster, big fan, etcetera.

You should check out the Replacement Level Yankees Weblog projections of Manny and Bay for the remainder of the season. It doesn't include Grabow, which obviously throws things more the Sox way, but the general finding is that Bay will be better going forward than Manny. You can find it here: http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/replacing_manny_ramirez_with_jason_bay

If stats like pBRAR are too fancypants, check out their batting lines this year. Manny's at .299/.398/.529, while Bay's at .282/.375/.519. Take into account the pitcher's park in Pittsburgh and the hitter's park in Boston, then give a bit of that back to Manny for the AL/NL switch, and you've got them pretty even. Then take into account that Bay, while not a great fielder, is for sure better than Manny, and you've got it even for this year.

Then of course, better for next year given the age difference of 6-7 years, the addition of Grabow, the fact that both are signed at reasonable prices next year... It's a win for the Sox, depending on what level of prospects they give up.

Just one man's thoughts. Take care and keep up the good work, Shystermon.

Craig Calcaterra said...

I'm not knocking those projections, abbreviatedman, but you know that (a) Boston has access to the same kinds of projections and probably better ones; but (b) they never would be considering this trade if Manny hadn't been effing up lately. Upshot: this isn't a purley performance-based transaction, and whenever that's the case, ya gotta worry at least a little bit.